Alex Demolitor
Alex Demolitor is a financial writer and cross-asset analyst who completed the CFA Program, passing all three levels of the CFA exams. He has a Bachelors degree from King's College in Ontario and specializes in the fundamental analysis of stocks, bonds, commodities, and FX, with a focus on U.S. and Canadian economic indicators like CPI and inflation. His market analysis has appeared on major publications such as FXEmpire, Investing.com, and AdvisorPedia.
by Alex Demolitor | Sep 11, 2026 | Definitions
The August 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation rose by 0.4% this month, up from a 0.1% increase in July. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on September 11, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.4%, matching the print from July.
This month’s results mostly aligned with economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents August’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, there weren’t many surprises.
Yet, as the US-Iran war intensifies and oil prices surge, Fed policy is back in the spotlight. Although interest rates have risen materially, many analysts expect the Fed to increase its policy rate at next week’s meeting. There are several crosscurrents the committee must navigate, which makes the decision highly crucial for the US economy and the financial markets.
Food Prices
The food index increased by 0.1% in August, matching the 0.1% rise in July. Four of the major grocery indices increased this month, one was flat, and one decreased.
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.0%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+0.1%)
- Dairy and related products (+0.3%)
- Fruits and vegetables (-0.4%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (+0.2%)
- Other food at home (+0.1%)
In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.3%, as restaurant inflation surpassed grocery inflation once again.
Energy Prices
The energy index rose by 2.1% MoM in August after dropping by 1.5% MoM in July. Gasoline prices jumped by 3.9%, while electricity fell by 0.2%, and natural gas by 1.1%.
Core CPI
The August core CPI rose by 2.4% Y-o-Y, down from 2.5% in July. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:
- Shelter index: (+0.3%) [July: +0.1%]
- Rent index: (+0.2%) [July: +0.3%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.2%) [July: +0.3%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (-0.8%) [July: -0.3%]
- Medical care services: (-0.2%) [July: +0.6%]
- Physician services: (+0.0%) [July: +0.2%]
- Hospital services: (+0.0%) [July: +0.5%]
- Airline fares: (+2.7%) [July: +2.2%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for August 2026 increased by 3.4% Y-o-Y to an index level of 334.980. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
A Fork In the Road
While higher oil prices remain troublesome for inflation, it’s difficult for the Fed to control geopolitics and the pricing pressures that follow. As a result, core inflation is typically the best metric to follow — since it excludes the effects of food and energy. However, market participants seem keen on forcing the Fed’s hand, which makes for difficult decisions in the weeks ahead.
For example, US nonfarm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations on September 4. The economy added 162,000 net new jobs, and the unemployment rate held steady near multi-year lows. Consequently, the labor market outlook remains solid, which could allow the Fed to focus solely on inflation.
In contrast, the rapid rise in Treasury yields and oil prices is causing immense stress in the subprime bond market. Lenders charge an interest rate ‘spread’ above government bonds to compensate for potential default risks. And with the spread on CCC & Lower bonds (the riskiest borrowers) surging, stressed companies will face even more trouble refinancing their loans and obtaining credit.
As such, a rate hike will likely only worsen the situation, potentially creating a default event that shifts the Fed’s problem in the other direction.
But despite the juggling act, market participants have officially chosen the former. The chart below highlights how the US oil price (blue) and the US 2-Year Treasury yield (black) have soared in recent weeks. The 2Y is a known proxy for the federal funds rate, and given its rapid ascent, investors expect more than one rate hike to materialize in the months ahead.
As for gold, it remains caught in the volatility, as higher interest rates are typically bearish for the yellow metal. However, Goldman Sachs increased its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 (from $4,600) on August 28, citing central bank purchases as the main driver. The report noted:
“Goldman Sachs Research expects central banks to buy an average of 50 tonnes of gold per month in 2026, up from an average of 17 tonnes per month before 2022.
“Central bank purchases accelerated to 100 tonnes per month in June 2026 (on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis) from 66 tonnes the previous month, according to Goldman Sachs Research’s nowcast of central bank activity. China’s central bank was the largest identifiable buyer in the market in June.”
Thus, while headline-driven swings may persist, gold’s structural outlook remains constructive.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
As a worthwhile option, Augusta Precious Metals specializes in precious metal IRAs, helping to roll your existing retirement accounts, such as a 401 (k), into IRAs backed by physical gold or silver. You can also purchase bullion directly, and the company has an exceptional reputation, with either AAA or 4.5 to 5-star reviews across multiple ratings agencies.
For more alternatives, our guide on the Top 12 Best Gold Investment Firms covers the pros and cons of the top dealers available. You can compare items like product availability, investment minimums, and buyback policies to determine the right option for you.
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by Alex Demolitor | Aug 12, 2026 | Definitions
The July 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation rose by 0.1% this month, up from a 0.4% decline in June. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on August 12, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.4%.
This month’s results matched economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents July’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, there weren’t any surprises.
Yet, as inflation concerns fester among the investing public, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said after the latest Monetary Policy Meeting on Jul. 29 that the bond market has already done much of the heavy lifting.
“Nominal and real yields are materially higher across the Treasury curve. In fact, some of the increases in market interest rates between FOMC meetings are among the most significant in the last two decades, ranking around the top decile or so,” he said.
“If I were to try to break down—just aggregate the Treasury market signals—I wouldn’t be able to do it perfectly. But the bond market’s saying many of those same things, and that’s why we’re seeing a tightening both in nominals and in reals, even while, at some level, we haven’t done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit.”
Thus, while investors debate the merits of rate hikes, Warsh believes higher interest rates have already been priced into the U.S. economy.
Food Prices
The food index increased by 0.1% in July, decelerating from the 0.2% rise in June. Four of the major grocery indices increased this month, while two decreased.
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.2%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (-0.7%)
- Dairy and related products (-0.1%)
- Fruits and vegetables (-0.1%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (+0.9%)
- Other food at home (+0.0%)
In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.3%, as restaurant inflation surpassed grocery inflation.
Energy Prices
The energy index fell by 1.5% MoM in July after dropping by 5.7% MoM in June — the largest monthly drop since April 2020. Gasoline prices fell by 2.9%, while electricity rose by 0.1%, and natural gas by 0.7%.
Core CPI
The July core CPI rose by 2.5% Y-o-Y, down from 2.6% in June. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:
- Shelter index: (+0.1%) [June: +0.1%]
- Rent index: (+0.3%) [June: +0.1%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.3%) [June: +0.1%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (-0.3%) [June: -2.0%]
- Medical care services: (+0.6%) [June: -0.1%]
- Physician services: (+0.2%) [June: -0.2%]
- Hospital services: (+0.5%) [June: +0.1%]
- Airline fares: (+2.2%) [June: +0.2%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for July 2026 increased by 3.4% Y-o-Y to an index level of 333.918. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
A Juggling Act
While interest rates have risen dramatically in recent months, investors seem keen on encouraging a rate hike from the Fed. However, recent data signals that tighter financial conditions may already be impacting the real economy.
For example, ADP private payrolls underperformed expectations last week, and the firm noted on Aug. 11 that its Weekly NER Pulse has slowed for six straight weeks. Consequently, weakening labor market metrics have become increasingly common.
Speaking of which, the BLS reported on Aug. 7 that U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July. And if you analyze the trend on the right side of the chart below (the one on the right), you can see that monthly payroll growth had declined over the last few months before turning negative in July. As a result, the slowdown is similar to the results from ADP.
Finally, while inflation is top of mind among the investing public, institutions are less concerned about the pricing pressures. The blue line below tracks the U.S. 5-Year breakeven inflation rate — a gauge of institutions’ annual inflation expectations over the next five years. And with the metric standing at 2.23% as of Aug. 11, it shows much less apprehension than the narrative suggests.
Turning to the financial markets, gold has found its footing in recent days and could be poised for a substantial comeback into year-end.
To explain, the green line above tracks known gold ETF holdings, while the brown line above tracks world gold holdings in central bank reserves. If you analyze the performance of the latter, you can see that the recent price slump didn’t deter the largest buyers in the market.
As such, the recent dip has only emboldened the bullion bulls, and when combined with oversold conditions and strong fundamentals, the activity could help propel gold higher over the next several months.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
As a worthwhile option, Augusta Precious Metals specializes in precious metal IRAs, helping to roll your existing retirement accounts, such as a 401 (k), into IRAs backed by physical gold or silver. You can also purchase bullion directly, and the company has an exceptional reputation, with either AAA or 4.5 to 5-star reviews across multiple ratings agencies.
For more alternatives, our guide on the Top 12 Best Gold Investment Firms covers the pros and cons of the top dealers available. You can compare items like product availability, investment minimums, and buyback policies to determine the right option for you.
Furthermore, if you need a financial reset but are unsure which company and path are right for you, several reputable options are available.
Up first, CuraDebt has been in business since 1996 and helps Americans struggling with unsecured claims like credit cards, personal loans, medical bills, and tax obligations. The company helps negotiate with creditors on your behalf and has roughly 300 positive reviews. The only downside is that service is not available in all states.
Second, Americor sets itself apart by providing counseling and consolidation services, but also offers in-house loans through its affiliate lender, Credit9. The firm has nearly 25,000 positive reviews, but may not be the best fit if you have a low credit score.
Similarly, we created an extensive guide covering the 23 Best Debt Relief Companies that deserve consideration. Comparing the various options helps identify their strengths and weaknesses, and often makes it easier to find the best option for your unique situation.
by Alex Demolitor | Jul 14, 2026 | Definitions
The June 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation declined by 0.4% this month, down from a rise of 0.5% in May. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on July 14, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.5%.
This month’s results missed economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents June’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the red metrics highlight the monthly underperformance.
Yet, with the U.S.-Iran conflict heating up again, the inflationary impact has Fed officials hinting at rate hikes. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Jul. 13 that “We’re building off of basically almost, you know, five to six months of ‘higher, higher, higher, higher,’ on inflation readings. If I get another higher one, I’m going to treat that as signal, not noise….
“I am concerned about the equally plausible case that data in the coming weeks will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term.”
As such, the recent spike in oil prices should only embolden his view the longer it persists.
Food Prices
The food index increased by 0.2% in June, matching the rise from May. Four of the major grocery indices increased this month, while two decreased.
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.3%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+0.6%)
- Dairy and related products (+1.2%)
- Fruits and vegetables (-0.2%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (-1.5%)
- Other food at home (+0.5%)
In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.2%, as restaurant inflation aligned with grocery inflation.
Energy Prices
The energy index fell by 5.7% MoM in June, the largest monthly drop since April 2020. Gasoline prices fell by 9.7%, electricity by 1.0%, and natural gas rose by 0.5%.
Core CPI
The June core CPI rose by 2.6% Y-o-Y, a deceleration from the 2.9% recorded in May. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:
- Shelter index: (+0.1%) [May: +0.3%]
- Rent index: (+0.1%) [May: +0.4%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.2%) [May: +0.3%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (-2.0%) [May: -1.7%]
- Medical care services: (-0.1%) [May: +0.5%]
- Physician services: (-0.2%) [May: +0.0%]
- Hospital services: (+0.1%) [May: +0.7%]
- Airline fares: (+0.2%) [May: +2.7%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for June 2026 increased by 3.5% Y-o-Y to an index level of 333.952. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
The Chaos Continues
After another escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, higher oil prices and potentially higher inflation are back in the spotlight. Yet, this time the uncertainty and the bond market sell-off are occurring when U.S. economic growth is slipping.
To explain, the green line above tracks the Atlanta Fed’s second-quarter 2026 GDP growth estimate. If you analyze the movement, you can see that higher interest rates and financial market volatility are starting to weigh on economic output. Moreover, with the metric sitting near 1.30%, the U.S. economy may continue to struggle until the geopolitical turmoil ends.
In contrast, U.S. job postings have increased recently. After bottoming near 6.6 million in December 2025, the metric has increased to almost 7.6 million as of the end of May. Consequently, divergent data make the outlook even more murky for policymakers.
Finally, Goldman Sachs told clients recently that the AI spending spree could uplift inflation. With soaring memory, software, and electricity prices poised to flow into the PCE and CPI baskets, they could create even more challenges for the Fed in the months ahead.
Turning to the financial markets, gold continues to suffer from the geopolitical volatility. But interestingly, the recent correction is similar to 2008, right before the multi-year surge.
To explain, the vertical red lines above highlight the similarity between the 2008 correction and the current one. And with the timeframes and magnitude quite consistent, it could be an interesting clue that gold is nearing an inflection point.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
As a worthwhile option, Augusta Precious Metals specializes in precious metal IRAs, helping to roll your existing retirement accounts, such as a 401 (k), into IRAs backed by physical gold or silver. You can also purchase bullion directly, and the company has an exceptional reputation, with either AAA or 4.5 to 5-star reviews across multiple ratings agencies.
Furthermore, if you need a financial reset but are unsure which company and path are right for you, several reputable options are available.
Up first, CuraDebt has been in business since 1996 and helps Americans struggling with unsecured claims like credit cards, personal loans, medical bills, and tax obligations. The company helps negotiate with creditors on your behalf and has roughly 300 positive reviews. The only downside is that service is not available in all states.
Second, Americor sets itself apart by providing counseling and consolidation services, but also offers in-house loans through its affiliate lender, Credit9. The firm has nearly 25,000 positive reviews, but may not be the best fit if you have a low credit score.
Last, we created an extensive guide covering the 23 Best Debt Relief Companies that deserve consideration. Comparing the various options helps identify their strengths and weaknesses, and often makes it easier to find the best option for your unique situation.
by Alex Demolitor | Jun 10, 2026 | Definitions
The May 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.5% this month, down from 0.6% in April. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on June 10, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 4.2%.
This month’s results mostly aligned with economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents May’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the black figures were in line, while the core CPI was slightly weaker than anticipated.
Yet, with new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh inheriting a difficult situation with the U.S.-Iran conflict, higher oil prices and their impact on inflation have hurt the case for rate cuts. And the longer it takes for the conflict to resolve, the more likely it is that tighter monetary policy emerges in the months ahead.
Food Prices
The food index increased by 0.2% in May after jumping by 0.5% in April. Three of the major grocery indices increased this month, one was flat, and two decreased.
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.4%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (-0.2%)
- Dairy and related products (-0.6%)
- Fruits and vegetables (+0.2%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (+0.6%)
- Other food at home (+0.0%)
In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.3%, as restaurant inflation surpassed grocery inflation in May after underperforming in April.
Energy Prices
The energy index rose by 3.9% MoM in May following a 3.9% increase in April. Gasoline prices rose by 7.0%, electricity by 0.6%, and natural gas fell by 0.5%.
Core CPI
The May core CPI rose by 2.9% Y-o-Y, ahead of the 2.8% figure from April. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:
- Shelter index: (+0.3%) [April: +0.6%]
- Rent index: (+0.4%) [April: ++0.5%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.3%) [April: +0.5%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (-1.7%) [April: +0.1%]
- Medical care services: (+0.5%) [April: +0.0%]
- Physician services: (+0.0%) [April: +0.6%]
- Hospital services: (+0.7%) [April: -0.3%]
- Airline fares: (+2.7%) [April: +2.8%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for May 2025 increased by 4.2% Y-o-Y to an index level of 335.123. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
Fighting the Bond Market
While the Fed will likely do everything in its power to avoid raising interest rates, the bond market has already sounded the alarm.
To explain, the blue line above tracks the federal funds rate, while the black line above tracks the 2-Year Treasury yield. The latter is considered a gauge of what the Fed should do; and with the metric rising sharply over the last few months, the bond market expects the committee to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
Supporting the argument, the U.S. labor market remains in a healthy place, which places more pressure on the Fed to prioritize its inflation mandate.
To explain, the red bars above track the monthly change in U.S. nonfarm payrolls, while the dark red line above tracks the 3-month average. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that payroll growth has accelerated, which reduces the case for loose monetary policy. As such, inflation will likely be the main issue plaguing the Fed over the medium term.
Finally, the latest S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (released on Jun. 1) adds to the story as it showed that input and output inflation have risen considerably. Therefore, the results could feed into the CPI over the coming months and continue to influence interest rate expectations.
Turning to the financial markets, gold has struggled as higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar reduce its relative appeal. However, Ed Yardeni believes it’s a buying opportunity and reiterated his bullish forecast.
To explain, Yardeni still expects gold to hit $5,500 by the end of 2026 and $10,000 by the end of the decade. Consequently, the yellow metal could outperform once the U.S.-Iran conflict ends.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
As a worthwhile option, Augusta Precious Metals specializes in precious metal IRAs, helping to roll your existing retirement accounts, such as a 401 (k), into IRAs backed by physical gold or silver. You can also purchase bullion directly, and the company has an exceptional reputation, with either AAA or 4.5 to 5-star reviews across multiple ratings agencies.
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by Alex Demolitor | May 12, 2026 | Definitions
The April 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.6% this month, down from 0.9% in March. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on May 12, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.8%, as higher energy prices accounted for over 40% of the monthly increase.
This month’s results also exceeded economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents April’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the data was slightly hotter than anticipated.
Yet, as the on-again, off-again, conflict between the U.S. and Iran persists, crude oil continues to hold policymakers hostage. The original assumption among market participants was that the duration of the oil surge would determine whether or not the FOMC needed to raise interest rates. And with little progress made toward lowering WTI prices and alleviating the inflation ramifications, more watching and waiting are likely for at least a couple of months.
Food Prices
The food index rose by 0.5% in April after being flat in March. Five of the major grocery indices increased this month, while one decreased.
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.1%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+1.3%)
- Dairy and related products (+0.8%)
- Fruits and vegetables (+1.8%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (+1.1%)
- Other food at home (-0.4%)
In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.2%, as restaurant inflation underperformed grocery inflation in April.
Energy Prices
The energy index jumped by 3.8% MoM in April following a 10.9% increase in March. Gasoline prices rose by 5.4%, electricity by 2.1%, and natural gas fell by 0.1%.
Core CPI
The April core CPI rose by 2.8% Y-o-Y, above the 2.6% print from March. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:
- Shelter index: (+0.6%) [March: +0.3%]
- Rent index: (+0.5%) [March: +0.2%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.5%) [March: +0.3%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (+0.1%) [March: +0.0%]
- Medical care services: (+0.0%) [March: +0.0%]
- Physician services: (+0.6%) [March: +0.7%]
- Hospital services: (-0.3%) [March: +0.4%]
- Airline fares: (+2.8%) [March: +2.7%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for April 2025 increased by 3.8% Y-o-Y to an index level of 333.020. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
Still Going Strong
While the geopolitical conflict has taken a toll on other regions, the U.S. has been a relative outperformer. For one, the U.S. is the largest oil producer in the world, so higher prices aren’t as problematic as they are for net-importing countries. Second, with the U.S. labor market still in solid shape, the FOMC doesn’t have to worry about the second half of its dual mandate.
The BLS reported on May 8 that “Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent.” More importantly, the result outperformed economists’ consensus estimate (115k vs. 65k), reinforcing the belief that the labor market is stronger than expected.
Similarly, JOLTS job openings came in at 6.866 million vs. 6.860 million on May 5, and the report noted how “The number of hires increased to 5.6 million (+655,000), and the rate increased to 3.5 percent in March, more than offsetting decreases in those measures the previous month.”
Thus, with the metric attempting to reverse its years-long downtrend, the bounce in March was welcome news for the FOMC.
Finally, a declining inventory-sales ratio could help support economic growth in the back half of the year.
To explain, when the blue line above is falling, it means that U.S. business inventories are declining as a percentage of sales. Eventually, these firms will need to increase production to replenish their inventories, which typically supports GDP growth and employment. As a result, a potential restocking cycle could provide the FOMC with more leeway to focus on inflation rather than worry about growth and employment.
Turning to the financial markets, while volatility continues to whipsaw gold, Citigroup has mostly bullish scenarios unfolding in the months and years ahead.
To explain, the base case (~50% probability) is a steady rise to $5,000; the bull case (~30%) is a sharp rally to $6,000 in 2026 and $7,000 in 2027 under stagflation and prolonged geopolitical stress; the bear case (~20%) is a drop to ~$4,000. Add it all up, and with the potential upside more than the potential downside, the investment bank remains constructive on gold’s future prospects.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
As a worthwhile option, Augusta Precious Metals specializes in precious metal IRAs, helping to roll your existing retirement accounts, such as a 401 (k), into IRAs backed by physical gold or silver. You can also purchase bullion directly, and the company has an exceptional reputation, with either AAA or 4.5 to 5-star reviews across multiple ratings agencies.
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