The Consumer Price Index Rises 0.6% In April, Seasonally Adjusted, and Jumps to 3.8% Annually

by Alex Demolitor | May 12, 2026 | Definitions

The April 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.6% this month, down from 0.9% in March. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on May 12, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.8%, as higher energy prices accounted for over 40% of the monthly increase.

This month’s results also exceeded economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents April’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the data was slightly hotter than anticipated.

Yet, as the on-again, off-again, conflict between the U.S. and Iran persists, crude oil continues to hold policymakers hostage. The original assumption among market participants was that the duration of the oil surge would determine whether or not the FOMC needed to raise interest rates. And with little progress made toward lowering WTI prices and alleviating the inflation ramifications, more watching and waiting are likely for at least a couple of months.

Food Prices

The food index rose by 0.5% in April after being flat in March. Five of the major grocery indices increased this month, while one decreased.

• Cereals and bakery products (+0.1%)
• Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+1.3%)
• Dairy and related products (+0.8%)
• Fruits and vegetables (+1.8%)
• Nonalcoholic beverages (+1.1%)
• Other food at home (-0.4%)

In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.2%, as restaurant inflation underperformed grocery inflation in April.

Energy Prices

The energy index jumped by 3.8% MoM in April following a 10.9% increase in March. Gasoline prices rose by 5.4%, electricity by 2.1%, and natural gas fell by 0.1%.

Core CPI

The April core CPI rose by 2.8% Y-o-Y, above the 2.6% print from March. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:

• Shelter index: (+0.6%) [March: +0.3%]
• Rent index: (+0.5%) [March: +0.2%]
• Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.5%) [March: +0.3%]
• Motor vehicle insurance: (+0.1%) [March: +0.0%]
• Medical care services: (+0.0%) [March: +0.0%]
• Physician services: (+0.6%) [March: +0.7%]
• Hospital services: (-0.3%) [March: +0.4%]
• Airline fares: (+2.8%) [March: +2.7%]

Seasonally Unadjusted CPI

Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for April 2025 increased by 3.8% Y-o-Y to an index level of 333.020. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results. 

Still Going Strong

While the geopolitical conflict has taken a toll on other regions, the U.S. has been a relative outperformer. For one, the U.S. is the largest oil producer in the world, so higher prices aren’t as problematic as they are for net-importing countries. Second, with the U.S. labor market still in solid shape, the FOMC doesn’t have to worry about the second half of its dual mandate.

The BLS reported on May 8 that “Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent.” More importantly, the result outperformed economists’ consensus estimate (115k vs. 65k), reinforcing the belief that the labor market is stronger than expected.

Similarly, JOLTS job openings came in at 6.866 million vs. 6.860 million on May 5, and the report noted how “The number of hires increased to 5.6 million (+655,000), and the rate increased to 3.5 percent in March, more than offsetting decreases in those measures the previous month.”

Thus, with the metric attempting to reverse its years-long downtrend, the bounce in March was welcome news for the FOMC.

Finally, a declining inventory-sales ratio could help support economic growth in the back half of the year.

To explain, when the blue line above is falling, it means that U.S. business inventories are declining as a percentage of sales. Eventually, these firms will need to increase production to replenish their inventories, which typically supports GDP growth and employment. As a result, a potential restocking cycle could provide the FOMC with more leeway to focus on inflation rather than worry about growth and employment.

Turning to the financial markets, while volatility continues to whipsaw gold, Citigroup has mostly bullish scenarios unfolding in the months and years ahead.

To explain, the base case (~50% probability) is a steady rise to $5,000; the bull case (~30%) is a sharp rally to $6,000 in 2026 and $7,000 in 2027 under stagflation and prolonged geopolitical stress; the bear case (~20%) is a drop to ~$4,000. Add it all up, and with the potential upside more than the potential downside, the investment bank remains constructive on gold’s future prospects.

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The Consumer Price Index Rises 0.9% In March, Seasonally Adjusted, and Jumps to 3.3% Annually

by Alex Demolitor | Apr 10, 2026 | Definitions

The March 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.9% this month, well above the 0.3% from February. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on April 10, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.3%, as higher oil prices had a noticeable impact.

Despite that, this month’s results missed economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents March’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the data slightly underperformed.

Yet, while a ceasefire has been reached in the U.S.-Iran conflict, the two-week moratorium creates uncertainty for investors, and therefore, the Fed. With oil prices gyrating with every headline, WTI has largely ranged between $115 and $90. And with the former poised to increase headline inflation, it makes it difficult for the FOMC to project a monetary policy path. As a result, while higher CPI prints are expected over the next few months, the duration of the conflict will likely determine the committee’s response.

Food Prices

The food index was flat in March after increasing by 0.4% MoM in February. Four major grocery indices declined this month, while one increased and the other was flat.

• Cereals and bakery products (-0.6%)
• Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (-0.6%)
• Dairy and related products (-0.6%)
• Fruits and vegetables (+1.0%)
• Nonalcoholic beverages (-0.3%)
• Other food at home (+0.0%)

In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.2%, as restaurant inflation outpaced grocery inflation in March.

Energy Prices

The energy index soared by 10.9% MoM in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005. Gasoline prices jumped by 21.2% (the largest monthly increase since the series was first published in 1967), while electricity rose by 0.8%, and natural gas fell by 0.9%.

Core CPI

The March core CPI rose by 2.6% Y-o-Y, slightly above the 2.5% print from February. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:

• Shelter index: (+0.3%) [February: +0.2%]
• Rent index: (+0.2%) [February: +0.1%]
• Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.3%) [February: +0.2%]
• Motor vehicle insurance: (0.0%) [February: -0.3%]
• Medical care services: (+0.0%) [February: +0.6%]
• Physician services: (+0.7%) [February: +0.3%]
• Hospital services: (+0.4%) [February: +0.6%]
• Airline fares: (+2.7%) [February: +1.4%]

Seasonally Unadjusted CPI

Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for March 2025 increased by 3.3% Y-o-Y to an index level of 330.213. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results. 

Waiting For Clarity

With the U.S.-Iran conflict a tailwind for inflation, resilient economic data makes it easier for the FOMC to take a cautious approach. For example, after the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, the March Employment Situation report was much more optimistic. The release noted how nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

Moreover, the figures easily surpassed economists’ consensus estimates (the numbers on the right), and even though wage inflation decelerated, it still outpaced the Y-o-Y CPI in March.

In addition, ADP’s weekly employment tracker has remained resilient, with the firm noting on Apr. 7 that “For the four weeks ending March 21, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 26,000 jobs a week. It was the third straight week of improvement in hiring.”

As such, while February was a struggle, the employment data in March held strong, despite the ongoing conflict and its impact on commodity prices and business sentiment.

Finally, the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has actually increased since the onset of the war, and has slowly crept higher since bottoming in 2023. For context, “The WEI is a composite of 10 weekly economic indicators” that uses “timely and relevant high-frequency data” to create “a single index of weekly economic activity.” In a nutshell: it uses consumer, labor market, and production data to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. And with the metric still relatively elevated, it hasn’t signaled any stress as of Apr. 4.

Turning to the financial markets, while gold has corrected sharply amid the recent volatility, Goldman Sachs still expects the yellow metal to hit $5,400 by the end of 2026.

To explain, the investment bank sees speculative trading flows adding $195, 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts adding $120, and more central bank purchases adding $535. Add it all up, and there could be plenty of upside once the war uncertainty dissipates.

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The Consumer Price Index Rises 0.3% In February, Seasonally Adjusted, and Holds at 2.4% Annually

by Alex Demolitor | Mar 11, 2026 | Definitions

The February 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.3% this month, up from the 0.2% rise in January. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on March 11, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 2.4%, matching the annualized figure from January.

It was a relatively uneventful CPI release as the figures aligned with economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents February’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, there were no surprises in February.

Yet, with troubling developments unfolding in the Middle East, the recent spike in oil prices could derail investors’ hopes for future rate cuts. The only game plan is to observe how the drama unfolds, as a short-term disruption and a dramatic drop in Brent and WTI futures could facilitate further normalization. If not, and prices hover above $100 a barrel for a sustained period, the FOMC may face some tough choices over the next few months.

Food Prices

The food index rose by 0.4% MoM in February, double the monthly rate from January. Three major grocery indices increased this month, one was flat, and two decreased.

• Cereals and bakery products (-0.2%)
• Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+0.0%)
• Dairy and related products (-0.6%)
• Fruits and vegetables (+1.4%)
• Nonalcoholic beverages (+0.8%)
• Other food at home (+0.8%)

Back on track, the food away from home index increased by 0.3% in February (versus 0.1% in January), as restaurant inflation showcased strength once again.

Energy Prices

The energy index rose by 0.6% MoM in February after dropping by 1.5% in January. Gasoline prices rose by 0.8%, electricity fell by 0.7%, and natural gas jumped by 3.1%.

Core CPI

The February core CPI rose by 2.5% Y-o-Y, matching the 2.5% print from January and a decline from 2.6% in December. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:

• Shelter index: (+0.2%) [January: +0.2%]
• Rent index: (+0.1%) [January: +0.2%]
• Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.2%) [January: +0.2%]
• Motor vehicle insurance: (-0.3%) [January: -0.4%]
• Medical care services: (+0.6%) [January: +0.3%]
• Physician services: (+0.3%) [January: +0.3%]
• Hospital services: (+0.6%) [January: +0.9%]
• Airline fares: (+1.4%) [January: +6.5%]

Seasonally Unadjusted CPI

Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for February 2025 increased by 2.4% Y-o-Y to an index level of 326.785. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results. 

Unsettling Times

With the U.S.-Iran war creating chaos in the Middle East, it’s always sad when disagreements turn into armed conflict. And while the human impact is the most troubling, a potential economic fallout could occur as well.

The recent volatility in oil prices could hurt (or help) inflation, depending on the duration of the war and the disruption in oil flows. And with the event occurring at a time when the U.S. labour market faces its own uncertainty, the Fed’s dual mandate may conflict with one another.

To explain, the BLS revealed on Mar. 6 that the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the recent rotation between positive and negative prints creates a fragile foundation for employment. Therefore, more bad data alongside higher oil prices could have labor and inflation heading in the opposite directions.

In contrast, ADP’s February Employment Report — which uses data from private businesses — came in at +63,000 on Mar. 4. An excerpt read:

“Hiring jumped in February, delivering the best showing for job gains since November 2025. Construction, education, and health services led the growth.” Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson, added, “We’ve seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers.”

Thus, resilient private and shaky public payrolls data only clouds the outlook for monetary policy.

To break the tie, it’s prudent to monitor U.S. Job Postings on Indeed. Since the data set updates weekly, it’s a more timely indicator of employment demand. And because the metric has trended higher since bottoming in November 2025, it supports ADP’s results more than the BLS, aligning with a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. labor market.

Turning to the financial markets, gold and silver have been caught in the recent volatility, as the prospect of an oil-induced recession is bearish for inflation-driven assets like precious metals.

However, research from J.P. Morgan highlights how Middle East conflict is typically bullish for gold.

To explain, the colored lines above track the performance of gold before, during, and after conflicts in the Middle East. If you analyze the middle of the chart, the number zero on the x-axis represents the beginning of each battle. During three of the four events, gold either rose immediately or was higher within the next 50 days. As a result, the yellow metal should remain a reliable portfolio hedge during this bout of uncertainty.

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The Consumer Price Index Rises 0.3% In December, Seasonally Adjusted, and Holds at 2.7% Annually

by Alex Demolitor | Jan 13, 2026 | Definitions

The December 2025 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.3% this month, up from the 0.2% average over the last two months. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on January 13, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 2.7%, matching the recent two-month average.

Today’s core results also missed economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents December’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the red metrics highlight how core inflation was weaker than anticipated.

With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell still leading the FOMC until his term ends later this year, he reiterated in December that he’s in no hurry to cut rates. And with investors pricing in little to no chance of a rate cut in January, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 9 that “Bond traders maintained an outlook for two rate cuts overall in 2026, with the first seen by mid-year.”

As a result, disappointing economic data will likely be required for accelerated easing over the next few months.

Food Prices

The food index rose by 0.7% MoM in December, and five of the six major grocery indices increased this month.

• Cereals and bakery products (+0.6%)
• Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (-0.2%)
• Dairy and related products (+0.9%)
• Fruits and vegetables (+0.5%)
• Nonalcoholic beverages (+0.4%)
• Other food at home (+1.6%)

The food away from home index also jumped by 0.7%, as restaurant inflation kept pace with grocery prices in December.

Energy Prices

The energy index increased by 0.3% MoM in December, with gasoline prices down by 0.5%, electricity down by 0.1%, and natural gas rising by 4.4%.

Core CPI

The December core CPI rose by 2.6% Y-o-Y, matching the average figure from the previous two months. As a reminder, the October CPI report was cancelled due to the government shutdown, so the metrics don’t have comparable MoM data from November.

• Shelter index: (+0.4%)
• Rent index: (+0.3%)
• Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.3%)
• Motor vehicle insurance: (NA)
• Medical care services: (+0.4%)
• Physician services: (+0.3%)
• Hospital services: (+1.0%)
• Airline fares: (5.2%)

Seasonally Unadjusted CPI

Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for December 2025 increased by 2.7% Y-o-Y to an index level of 324.054. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results. 

Let the Good Times Roll

With solid economic data pointing to steady economic activity, the FOMC can continue its wait-and-see approach and not rush further rate cuts.

For example, the BLS released its Employment Situation report on Jan. 9. The U.S. economy added 50,000 net new jobs, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.4%. Furthermore, average hourly earnings (a proxy for wage inflation) increased from 3.6% Y-o-Y in November to 3.8% Y-o-Y in December. Consequently, the labor market remains on solid footing for the time being.

As further evidence, the BLS released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) on Jan. 7. And with more than seven million job openings still available, the metric (the blue line below) has stabilized near its pre-pandemic baseline. Likewise, layoffs and discharges (the green line below) also remain in a healthy range and highlight how most employers continue to retain staff.

Finally, the Atlanta Fed updated its Q4 GDPNow model on Jan. 9. And while the results can be skewed by fluctuating imports and exports, and the data is lagged, the latest reading pegs growth at 5.1% (the green line below). If realized, the results would be well above 2% trend growth and economists’ consensus estimates (the blue line below).

Add it all up, and the recent data is strong enough to suppress any rate-cut calls, and the FOMC should continue to preach the same message until weaker data forces its hand.

Turning to the financial markets, gold had a tremendous 2025, and the fundamentals support more strength in 2026.

To explain, the orange line above tracks the 5-year rolling percentage change in the gold price, while the blue line above tracks the 5-year rolling percentage change in global military spending. As you can see, the yellow metal lives up to its safe-haven reputation when the geopolitical outlook becomes more treacherous.

To that point, U.S. President Donald Trump has advocated for a 50% increase in the U.S. military budget, in what he called “very troubled and dangerous times.” As a result, the spending trend should continue, and the developments are bullish for gold.

Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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