The October 2024 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.2% for the month, matching July, August, and September’s 0.2% rise. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on Wednesday, November 13, 2024, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 2.6%, a slight uptick from the 2.4% witnessed in September.
Despite that, the CPI data mostly matched economists’ estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents October’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. Outside of the index levels (marked in green), the rest of the results (marked in black) aligned with the consensus.
This is welcome news to FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell. The committee’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7 should avoid scrutiny as the inflation results may calm fears of another price acceleration. He said during his post-meeting press conference:
“Inflation has moved down a great deal from its highs of two years ago, and we judge, as I mentioned, that it’s on a sustainable path back to 2%. The job’s not done on inflation, but we judged in September that it was appropriate to begin to recalibrate our policy stance to reflect this progress, and today’s decision is really another step in that process.”
He added:
“We’re not declaring victory, obviously, but we feel like the story is very consistent with inflation, continuing to come down on a bumpy path over the next couple of years and settling around 2%. That story is intact, and it won’t be one or two really good data months or bad data months aren’t going to really change the pattern at this point now that we’re this far into the process.”
As a result, while October’s CPI data is another chapter in Powell’s inflation story, the momentum continues to trend in a positive direction.
Most headline inflation metrics were well-behaved in October, with only used cars and trucks and electricity increasing by 2.7% and 1.2% month-over-month. Core inflation (which excludes the impacts of food and energy), rose by 0.3% in October, matching August and September’s print. But, the shelter index rose by 0.4%, a noticeable increase from the 0.2% reported in September.
Food Prices
The food index showcased progress in October, rising by 0.2%, and declining from September’s 0.4% print. Five of the six major grocery store food indexes increased:
Cereals and bakery products (+1.0%)
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (-1.2%)
Dairy and related products (+1.0%)
Fruits and vegetables (+0.4%)
Nonalcoholic beverages (+0.4%)
Other food at home (+0.1%)
In addition, the food away from home index rose by 0.2% — a decline from August and September — which means restaurant prices largely tracked overall inflation in October.
Energy Prices
The energy index was flat in October after declining by 1.9% in September. Gasoline prices dropped by 0.9% (1.9% without seasonal adjustments), while electricity and natural gas prices rose by 1.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
Core CPI October 2024
The October core CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% Y-o-Y. Below is an itemized breakdown of the main price fluctuations seen in the core CPI reading:
Motor vehicle insurance: (-0.1%) [September: +1.2%]
Medical care services: (+0.4%) [September: +0.7%]
Physician services: (+0.5%) [September: +0.9%]
Hospital services: (+0.5%) [NA]
Airline fares: (+3.2%) [September: +3.2%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI Data for October 2024
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for October 2024 increased by 2.6% Y-o-Y, rising to an index level of 315.664. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
More Cuts to Come?
While investors are eager for rate cuts and a return to pre-pandemic monetary policy, Powell cautioned that the ebbs and flows of economic data will decide the FOMC’s future path.
“Nothing in the economic data suggests that the committee has any need to be in a hurry to get there,” he said. “We are seeing strong economic activity, we are seeing ongoing strength in the labor market; we’re watching that carefully. But we do see maintaining strength there. And so we think that the right way to find neutral, if you will, is carefully, patiently.”
He added:
“The precise timing of these things is not as important as the overall arc ofthem, and the arc of them is to move from where we are now to the sense of neutral, a more neutral policy. We don’t know exactly where that is, we only know it by its works. We’re pretty sure it’s below where we are now.”
So, while resilient economic data allows Powell to take a patient approach, the long-term trend should eventually produce lower rates in the months ahead.
In the meantime, a major divergence for risk assets unfolded following the Nov. 6 U.S. Presidential election. Bitcoin and Ethereum soared, while gold and silver sold off. However, the U.S. dollar was a major beneficiary, and gold often has a negative correlation with the greenback.
Yet, the short-term correction should give way to higher prices over time, as Goldman Sachs forecasts gold will hit $3,000 in 2025. The blue line below tracks gold’s price path, while the gray line at the top measures the implied futures price, and the dotted red line measures Goldman Sachs’ forecasted price. As you can see, the investment bank is more bullish than the futures market and expects gold to outperform for the foreseeable future.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Remember, seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
If inflation is eating away at your portfolio, one investment you may have looked at is precious metals. Physical metals are known to be a good hedge against inflation and paper assets, but which precious metal should you invest in: gold or silver? In this article, we’ll cover the pros and cons of both to help you decide on your precious metal allocation. First, let’s look at this comparison table:
Factor
Gold
Silver
Market Value
Higher price per ounce
Much lower price per ounce
Volatility
Lower volatility, more stable
Higher volatility, more prone to price swings up or down
Liquidity
Highly liquid, easier to buy and sell in large quantities
Liquid but may have less demand in large quantities
Industrial Use
Minimal industrial use
Significant industrial demand (electronics, EV, solar energy)
Supply and Demand
More stable due to its primary use as a store of value
Fluctuates based on industrial demand and economic cycles
Hedge Against Inflation
Strong hedge, typically rises during inflation
Also a hedge, but more sensitive to its industrial demand and economic conditions
Investment Popularity
Preferred by institutional investors and central banks
More popular among smaller retail investors
Portfolio Diversification
Considered a safer and more stable option for diversification
More speculative, can add risk but also potential for higher gains
Historical Performance
Steady long-term appreciation, especially in times of crisis
More cyclical, with stronger price movements in both directions
Storage Costs & Space Required
Requires less space due to higher value per ounce. One $80,000 gold bar can fit in your pocket.
Silver requires more physical space for equivalent value. $80,000 worth of silver would occupy the equivalent of 2 shoeboxes.
For me, the highlight of this table is how easy it is to store gold. An $80k gold bar can fit in your pocket, which makes it very convenient, cheap and easy to store. This factor greatly contributes to the fact that gold is an amazing store of value. However, this also makes it very difficult to “spend”. In a scenario where the dollar is worth nothing and you want to use your precious metals as currency for everyday expenses, silver might be a better choice.
Gold: The Classic Choice
Gold investing goes back thousands of years. Virtually every holy book mentions it. Now, why should you consider gold? For the following reasons:
Stability: Almost every known civilization has valued gold for thousands of years, and even now, people often see it as a safe haven during economic uncertainty. Its price tends to be more stable over time.
Inflation Hedge: History has shown that when the cost of living rises, gold prices often increase too. This makes it a good option for preserving your purchasing power during high-inflation times.
Global Acceptance: Gold is recognized and valued worldwide. If you ever need to sell, it’s generally easy to find a buyer, especially if you have recognized bullion coins and bars like American gold eagles or Canadian maple leafs.
Less Volatility: Gold prices don’t fluctuate as wildly as some other investments, which can make it a calmer ride for investors.
Things to keep in mind:
Higher Cost: Gold is more expensive per ounce than silver. This means you’ll need more money upfront to invest. Also, each gold investment company has different fees, with some charging very high premiums. We encourage you to shop around. Look for a company with competitive prices for their gold coins and bars.
Slower Growth Potential: Because it’s more stable, you might see slower gains compared to more volatile investments.
Silver: The Dynamic Alternative
Silver is the most conductive metal on earth, which makes it needed in multiple industries, including Electric Vehicles, Electronics, Medicine and many more. Its various uses mean that its value goes beyond its investment potential. In a nutshell, you should consider investing in silver because:
Affordability: Silver is much cheaper than gold. Why is that helpful? It allows you to start investing with a smaller amount of money.
Industrial Demand: As we covered earlier, silver is used in many industries from electronics to EVs to solar panels. This can drive up demand and potentially its price.
Growth Potential: Silver prices can rise quickly, offering the chance for significant gains if the market moves in your favor. If being the key word.
Things to keep in mind:
Higher Volatility: Silver prices can swing more dramatically than gold. This means higher potential rewards but also higher risks.
Storage Space: Because silver is less valuable per ounce, you’ll need more physical space to store it compared to gold.
Market Liquidity: While silver is still easy to buy and sell, it might not be as readily accepted as gold in some markets. Especially in the east.
Making Your Decision
Before deciding on whether you should buy gold or silver as a hedge against inflation, consider your goals and comfort level:
Are you looking for stability and a long-term store of value? Gold might be the better choice for you.
Are you open to taking more risk for the chance of higher returns? Then silver could be more up your alley.
Do you have a smaller budget to start investing? Silver allows you to enter the market without needing a large sum of money.
Now, how about both?
Diversification: Investing in both gold and silver can help balance your portfolio. Really! Gold can provide stability. Silver offers growth potential.
Hedging Bets: Holding both metals means you’re not putting all your eggs in one basket.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, the choice between investing in gold vs silver depends on your individual financial situation, investment goals, and how much risk you’re comfortable taking on. It also depends on your understanding of the pros and cons of both metals. Do you believe the pros of one outweigh the pros of the other? There is no single right answer. Our final thoughts are:
Do Your Research: Look into current market trends, historical price movements, and forecasts.
Consult a Professional: It might be helpful to talk to a financial advisor who can offer personalized advice.
Think Long-Term: Precious metals are generally considered long-term investments.
As always, we would like to remind you that investing always comes with risks, and there’s no guaranteed return. But with careful consideration and planning, you can make a choice that aligns with your financial goals. Always speak to your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Understand that past results don’t guarantee future returns. Invest wisely.
Also, given the inflation we had to endure in the last few years, make sure you analyze your financial situation fully to determine whether you should be investing in a new asset class like precious metals. You should NEVER use debt or credit to buy physical metals or invest in anything else. If you’re in high debt, we recommend looking at different debt relief options to see how you can alleviate your debt, before thinking about investing.
Logo of New Era Debt Solutions (credit: neweradebtsolutions.com)
New Era Debt Solutions (https://neweradebtsolutions.com/) is a well-established, legitimate debt settlement company that’s been helping people get out of debt since 1999, which makes it one of the oldest debt settlement providers in America. Based in Camarillo, California, they operate nationwide (EXCEPT Maine, Oregon, and Iowa), and specialize in negotiating with creditors to settle unsecured debts, like credit card debt, personal loans and others for less than what you owe.
New Era Debt Company’s Snapshot
New Era Debt Solutions takes the #1 spot in our debt relief company rankings this year due to their combined score of 4.84/5 stars, as you can see below. This objective score takes into account their ratings on multiple third-party review sites.
New Era Debt Solutions has a good profile on Google reviews
What Services Does New Era Debt Offer?
New Era primarily offers debt settlement services, meaning they work with your creditors to reduce the total amount you owe. This service is specifically for unsecured debt (like credit cards, medical bills, personal loans and certain other types of debt). Their service cannot help for things like mortgages or student loans.
New Era Debt aims to create a plan that helps you become debt-free in as little as 24 to 48 months. One of the standout aspects of New Era is that they don’t charge any upfront fees. You only pay them when they’ve successfully settled your debt and you have agreed with their plan.
Reputation & Legitimacy Factors
In terms of reputation, New Era Debt Solutions has solid reviews across multiple platforms, as we covered earlier in the “company’s snapshot” section. They hold an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau (BBB).
On Trustpilot, they’ve received mostly positive reviews, with customers praising them for professionalism and their ability to reduce large amounts of debt. Like any company, there are a few negative reviews, but those are often about the downsides of debt settlement itself (such as its impact on credit scores), rather than the company’s service.
Management Team
New Era’s CEO, Dan Smith, has a strong background in finance and a focus on ethical, transparent practices. The company is committed to not only helping clients get out of debt but also educating them on how to stay out of it in the future. They pride themselves on being a debt settlement company that actually does the work in-house—they do not outsource anything, so you’re always dealing with New Era directly.
Which States Do They Cover?
New Era Debt Solutions serves clients across the United States, except in the states of Maine, Oregon, and Iowa as we covered in the beginning of this article. This may change in the future, so it’s always a good idea to fill out their pre-qualification form to see if your address allows debt settlement and if New Era operates there.
What’s the Process Like?
When you sign up, you’ll first have a consultation to review your financial situation. After that, they’ll create a plan tailored to your debt and begin negotiating with your creditors. You’ll make monthly payments into an escrow account while New Era works to settle your debts for less than what you owe. It’s a fairly straightforward process, but as with any debt settlement plan, it’s important to know that your credit score will take a hit. While under negotiation, there are also risks like collection calls or lawsuits.
Is New Era Debt Solutions Right for You?
New Era Debt Solutions has been around for over 20 years, and their track record, coupled with strong reviews and no upfront fees, makes them a legitimate option if you’re considering debt settlement. They are especially appealing if you’re struggling with large amounts of unsecured debt and need an alternative to bankruptcy. That said, debt settlement isn’t for everyone—make sure to understand the pros and cons before diving in.
If you’re dealing with overwhelming debt due to this high-inflation economic landscape, and are looking for a company that can help you decrease and/or pay off your debt, and has a great reputation, New Era could be the right fit for you. Make sure you take advantage of their free consultation to ask which of their various debt relief options is best for you.
FAQ
Here’s a frequently asked questions (FAQ) section covering the most common questions new users have about New Era Debt Solutions:
1. How much does New Era Debt Solutions charge?
New Era charges between 14% and 23% of the initial enrolled debt amount. There are no upfront fees; they only get paid when they successfully negotiate a debt reduction. This is a contingency-based fee structure.
2. What types of debt does New Era handle?
They handle unsecured debts like credit card debt, personal loans, private student loans, medical bills, and some types of business debts. They do not handle secured debts like mortgages or car loans.
3. Will using New Era affect my credit score?
Yes, debt settlement, regardless of which company you choose to work with, will negatively impact your credit score. Settling a debt means paying less than the full amount owed, which creditors deem a negative event. However, the impact is less damaging than bankruptcy.
4. Is New Era Debt Solutions accredited and reputable?
Yes, New Era has BBB accreditation and has an A+ rating. They have generally positive reviews from clients on platforms like TrustPilot and the BBB website.
5. Where is New Era available?
New Era is accessible in 46 states as well as Washington D.C. and the Virgin Islands. They do NOT operate in Maine, Oregon, and Iowa.They collaborate with the Consumer First Legal Network to offer services in certain states where they may not directly operate.
6. What happens if a creditor refuses to settle?
If a creditor refuses to negotiate, they could potentially take legal action, which might result in lawsuits or wage garnishments. However, most creditors prefer to negotiate rather than pursue costly legal action.
7. How long does the debt settlement process take?
The typical debt settlement program with New Era takes around 28 months. The exact duration depends on the amount of debt, your monthly contributions, and how quickly creditors agree to settlements.
8. Can I cancel my program with New Era Debt Solutions?
Yes, clients can cancel their program with New Era at any time. However, any funds put towards fees or those that are in the dedicated account may be subject to the terms of the cancellation agreement.
Amine Rahal
Amine is an entrepreneur, investor and financial writer that covers the US economy, inflation, alternative investments, cryptocurrencies and more. He has been involved in the space for over a decade.
Lauren Brown
Lauren has over 13 years of experience in wealth management and financial planning. She is a CFA charterholder and holds a Bachelor’s degree in Finance. Lauren has worked with several asset management firms, offering wealth advisory and portfolio management services to high-net-worth clients.
CuraDebt (https://www.curadebt.com/) is a debt relief company that has been in business since 1996 (according to their website), making it one of the oldest in the industry. They offer debt settlement and relief services for various types of unsecured debt, including credit card debt, personal loans, medical bills, and tax debt. Based on our review, CuraDebt seems to have generated a lot of positive reviews for its debt relief services, particularly for its ability to help clients reduce their debt significantly through negotiations with creditors.
Who is CuraDebt?
As we said earlier, CuraDebt is a debt settlement company that specializes in negotiating with creditors on behalf of consumers to reduce their overall debt. They work with individuals who are struggling to manage their credit card debt, tax debt, medical bills, or other unsecured debts.
Headquarters: Hollywood, Florida.
States Covered: All states EXCEPT: Connecticut, Georgia, Kansas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, and West Virginia
Debt consolidation (through partner lenders – watch out for the rates if you choose this path!)
Minimum debt: $5,000
Minimum Age: Must be at least 21+ years old.
Income Minimum: No minimum but must have verifiable regular income
Company Legitimacy, Ratings & Reviews
As we covered earlier, this company is operating in the debt settlement space since 1996, which makes it one of the oldest in the industry. In our view, the company’s longevity speaks volumes about its professionalism and customer service.
BBB Rating: A+ (best)
Google Reviews: 4.8/5 Stars (266 Reviews)
Investopedia: 3.9/5 Stars
Yelp: 4.6/5 Stars
TrustPilot: 2.3/5 Stars (13 Reviews)
BankRate: 4.6/5 Stars
Accreditations:
Member of the American Association for Debt Resolution (AADR)
Certified by the International Association of Professional Debt Arbitrators (IAPDA)
CuraDebt BBB
CuraDebt Investopedia Rating
CuraDebt Google Rating
CuraDebt Key Services & Features
Free Consultation: They provide a free initial consultation to discuss your debt situation and see whether you qualify for their services and what debt relief program is best for you.
List of Services Offered:
Debt Settlement
Debt Relief (Personal and Business)
Debt Negotiation
Debt Consolidation Program
Tax Debt Relief
Fee structure: No upfront fees; charges a fee only after successful debt settlement. Typically 20% of the settled debt
Strategy: Utilizes various strategies, such as creditor violations (e.g., FDCPA, TCPA) to negotiate better terms for clients
Limitations: services are not available in all U.S. states. Fill out the form to see if you qualify.
One of the key advantages of CuraDebt is that it does not charge upfront fees, meaning you only pay once a debt settlement has been successfully negotiated. The company’s fee structure is typically around 20% of the settled debt, which is in line with industry standards. CuraDebt is also known for its ability to identify creditor violations, which can sometimes lead to additional savings or settlements for the client.
However, it’s important to note that debt settlement can negatively impact your credit score, as the process often involves stopping payments to creditors while negotiations are underway. Additionally, CuraDebt’s services are not available in all U.S. states, and there have been some mixed reviews about customer service and transparency.
Customer Support Review
They seem to have a responsive customer support through their live chat feature. In fact, we asked their support team to explain their services briefly, and here is what one of their support agents named Genesis had to say:
“I’m going to explain a bit about our company and how we will assist you with your debt. Since 2000, we have been working nationwide, directly with clients’ creditors, to negotiate savings of 40 to 60 percent. Instead of making individual monthly payments to creditors, we create a plan for you where a portion of your funds is deposited into an account. As this amount accumulates, we negotiate agreements with your creditors on your behalf to eliminate your debt more quickly.
Here’s how it works: We will negotiate with each of your creditors to reduce the total amount you owe. For example, if you owe Capital One $800, and we negotiate it down to $300, you would pay $300 instead of $800. This $300 will come from your monthly payments into the account. Whenever we receive an offer, we will contact you to present it. Once you accept the offer, the money will be sent to the creditor.”
CuraDebt FAQ
What types of debt does CuraDebt handle?
CuraDebt specializes in settling unsecured debts, including credit card debt, personal loans, medical bills, private student loans, and tax debts. The company does not typically handle secured debts like mortgages or auto loans, although you should probably ask them to find out.
2. How does the CuraDebt debt settlement process work?
The process begins with a free consultation to assess your debt situation and see if you qualify for their services. If you enroll, CuraDebt will negotiate with your creditors to reduce the amount you owe. You’ll make monthly deposits into a dedicated savings account, which will be used to settle the negotiated debts. The typical time frame for settlement is 24 to 48 months.
3. Are there any upfront fees?
No, CuraDebt does not charge any upfront fees. You only pay a fee (usually 20% of the settled debt) after a successful settlement is reached and accepted.
4. Will using CuraDebt affect my credit score?
Yes, participating in a debt settlement program can negatively impact your credit score. The process often involves stopping payments to creditors, which can lead to a drop in your credit score. However, the goal is to eventually settle the debts for less than what is owed, which may help improve your financial situation in the long run. Also, note that the impact on your credit score isn’t as bad as a consumer proposal or bankruptcy.
5. How long does the debt settlement process take?
The debt settlement process with CuraDebt typically takes between 24 and 48 months, depending on the amount of debt and how quickly you can accumulate funds in your savings account for settlement.
6. Is CuraDebt available in all U.S. states?
No, CuraDebt’s services are not available in all states. It operates in 26 states and the District of Columbia. If you live in a state where CuraDebt does not operate, you’ll need to look for alternative debt relief options.
7. Does CuraDebt offer tax debt relief?
Yes, CuraDebt offers services to help with tax debt relief. Their team includes tax professionals who can negotiate with the IRS on your behalf to resolve tax debts, penalties, and liens.
8. What are the qualifications to use CuraDebt’s services?
To qualify for CuraDebt’s services, you must have a minimum of $5,000 in unsecured debt, be at least 21 years old, and have verifiable income. There is no maximum debt limit for their services.
9. What should I expect during the free consultation?
During the free consultation, a CuraDebt counselor will review your financial situation and discuss your options for debt relief. They will explain the potential savings, timeline, risks, and fees involved in the process. This consultation helps you decide if debt settlement is the right choice for you.
10. How do I get started with CuraDebt?
To get started, you can visit CuraDebt’s website to request a free savings estimate or call their customer service line. If you decide to enroll, you’ll be assigned a debt counselor who will guide you through the entire settlement process.
In the realm of economics, three terms often crop up in discussions about the health of an economy: inflation, recession, and depression. While they are interconnected in various ways, each term represents a distinct economic phenomenon with different implications for the economy and, by extension, for investors, businesses, and consumers. This article will delve into the definitions of inflation, recession, and depression and explore how they are linked. Let’s start by looking at a comparison table:
Inflation
Recession
Depression
Definition
General increase in prices.
Significant decline in economic activity, typically for two quarters or more.
Severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity.
Impact on Economy
Decreases purchasing power. Can stimulate economic activity when moderate, but leads to instability when too high.
Results in higher unemployment, decreased consumer spending, and economic slowdown.
Severe declines in employment and production, often causing significant economic hardship.
Common Causes
Excessive growth in the money supply, demand-pull, or cost-push factors.
Various, including financial crises, economic bubbles, or external shocks.
Often a severe or prolonged recession, but can also be caused by a financial crisis or large-scale economic dislocation.
Central Bank Response
May raise interest rates to slow economic activity and curb inflation.
May lower interest rates and increase government spending to stimulate economic activity.
Similar to recession, but response typically needs to be larger and more sustained. May involve significant fiscal policy responses as well.
Link to Other Two Terms
High inflation can lead to a recession. Recession can lead to low inflation or deflation.
Can turn into depression if severe and prolonged. Lower demand during a recession can lead to lower inflation.
Could lead to deflation due to lower demand. However, policy responses could potentially lead to inflation.
Inflation
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, eroding purchasing power. In other words, as inflation increases, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Inflation is updated monthly.
Moderate inflation is typical in a growing economy and can even stimulate economic activity. However, if it gets out of hand, it can lead to economic instability. The BLS uses the CPI to measure inflation.
The Federal Reserve, like most central banks, aims to control inflation by adjusting interest rates. Lower interest rates encourage spending and investment, which can boost economic activity and, potentially, inflation. Higher interest rates can slow economic activity and curb inflation.
Recession
A recession is typically defined as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months. This is often seen in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. Economists generally agree that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth indicate a recession.
Recessions can be caused by various factors, including financial crises, external shocks, and the bursting of economic bubbles. Policymakers often respond to recessions by lowering interest rates and increasing government spending, aiming to stimulate economic activity.
Depression
A depression represents a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. It’s more extended and more profound than a recession, characterized by significant declines in output, employment, and trade, often lasting several years. The most notable example is the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Depressions are rare, and economists don’t have a standardized definition like they do for a recession. However, they generally agree that depressions involve a substantial contraction in economic activity that lasts several years.
How Are They Linked?
Inflation, recession, and depression are intertwined in many ways:
Inflation and Recession: Too much inflation can lead to a recession. When prices rise too quickly (hyperinflation), consumers can struggle to afford goods and services, and businesses can find it challenging to plan for the future. If the central bank tries to combat high inflation by raising interest rates too quickly, it can cool the economy too much and lead to a recession.
Recession and Inflation: On the flip side, recessions can lead to lower inflation or even deflation (a general decrease in prices). In a recession, demand for goods and services falls, which can lead to lower prices.
Recession and Depression: If a recession is particularly severe and prolonged, it can turn into a depression. While there’s no strict dividing line, depressions involve higher unemployment, lower output, and more significant declines in standards of living than recessions.
Inflation and Depression: Inflation rates during a depression can vary. Sometimes, depressions can involve deflation, as demand for goods and services falls and businesses lower prices to try to entice customers. However, economic policy responses to a depression could lead to inflation. For example, if the government responds by increasing the money supply or government spending dramatically, it could eventually lead to increased inflation.
In summary, inflation, recession, and depression are all interconnected elements of economic cycles. By understanding these terms and their relationships, we can better grasp the complexities of economic health and make
FAQ
Q1: What causes inflation? A1: Inflation can be caused by various factors, including excessive growth in the money supply, demand-pull inflation where demand for goods and services outpaces supply, or cost-push inflation where the cost of raw materials or wages increase.
Q2: How can inflation be controlled? A2: Central banks often aim to control inflation by adjusting interest rates. By raising interest rates, central banks can decrease borrowing and spending, thus reducing inflation. Conversely, lowering interest rates can stimulate borrowing and spending, potentially leading to increased inflation.
Q3: What are the signs of a coming recession? A3: Common signs of a coming recession include a decline in the GDP, higher unemployment rates, lower consumer spending, decrease in business profits, and a volatile stock market.
Q4: How can a recession affect the average person? A4: During a recession, people might face job loss or reduced working hours. They may also see the value of their investments decrease, and it could become harder to get credit.
Q5: What’s the difference between a recession and a depression? A5: The main difference between a recession and a depression is the duration and severity of the economic downturn. A recession is a temporary decline in economic activity, typically lasting six months to a year. A depression, on the other hand, is a severe and prolonged economic downturn, often lasting several years.
Q6: How do governments respond to a depression? A6: In a depression, governments may enact expansive fiscal policies, such as increasing government spending, cutting taxes, or both, to stimulate the economy. Central banks may also adopt expansionary monetary policies, such as lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing.
Q7: Can a depression lead to inflation? A7: A depression could potentially lead to deflation due to lower demand. However, the economic policy responses to a depression, such as increasing the money supply or government spending, could eventually lead to increased inflation.
Q8: How does a recession affect inflation? A8: A recession typically leads to lower inflation or even deflation. This is because, in a recession, the demand for goods and services falls, which can lead to lower prices. However, the specific impact on inflation can vary depending on the nature and severity of the recession, and the policy responses to it.
Q9: What role do central banks play in managing the economy through these cycles? A9: Central banks play a crucial role in managing the economy through inflation, recession, and depression. They often use tools like interest rates and open market operations to influence the money supply, aiming to stabilize prices and maintain low unemployment rates.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) edged up 0.9% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. In May, it had increased 0.6%.
“This was the largest 1-month change since June 2008 when the index rose 1%. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4% before seasonal adjustment; this was the largest 12-month increase since a 5.4% increase for the period ending August 2008.” explained the bureau in its report.
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Food
The index for food edged up 0.8% for the month. The index for food at home likewise increased 0.8% in June. Five of the six major grocery store category indexes all saw percentage increases over the month including the fruits and vegetables index by 0.7%, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs by 2.5%, and the index for beef by 4.5%. The index for food away from home edged up 0.7% in June.
Over the last 12-month period, the food at home index rose 0.9%. All six of the component grocery store food group indexes saw percentage increases, with the fruits and vegetables index having the largest rise at 3.2%.
“The index for food away from home rose 4.2% over the last year, the largest 12-month increase in that index since the period ending in May 2009,” stated the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Energy
In June, the index of energy rose 1.5%. The index for gasoline rose 2.5% over the month. The price of gas increased 2.2%, prior to season adjustment. The natural gas index likewise increased 1.7%. Conversely, the index for electricity dropped 0.3% in June, after rising by 0.3% in May.
Since this time last year, the index for energy soared 24.5%. Over the last 12-month period, gas prices skyrocketed 45.1%. Likewise, the natural gas index increased 15.6%, and the electricity index rose 3.8% since this time last year.
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
All Items Less Food and Energy
In June, the index for all items less food and energy increased 0.9%. Several of the component indexes all saw increases over the month including the shelter index by 0.5%, the index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3%, and the rent index edged up 0.2%.
“The index for used cars and trucks rose sharply for the third consecutive month, increasing 10.5% in June. This was the largest monthly increase ever reported for the used cars and trucks index, which was first published in January 1953,” explained the bureau in its report.
Over the last 12 month period, the all items less food and energy index increased 4.5%.
“The index for used cars and trucks increased 45.2%, the largest 12-month change ever reported for that index. The index for new vehicles rose 5.3% over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending January 1987. The motor vehicle insurance index increased 11.3% in the last year, while the index for car and truck rental rose 87.7% over that period. The shelter index increased 2.6% over the last 12 months. The medical care index rose 0.4% over the past 12 months, its smallest 12-month increase since the period ending March 1941,” reported the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
