Alex Demolitor
Alex Demolitor is a Canadian financial writer hailing from Halifax, NS. Alex has a Bachelors Degree from King's College and passed the CFA Exam Level III. He specializes in fundamental analysis of the stock, bond, commodity, and FX markets. He also covers US & Canadian economic indicators.
by Alex Demolitor | Jun 12, 2024 | Monthly CPI Updates
The May 2024 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation was flat for the month, coming in below April’s increase (+0.3%). These data were released at 8:30 am EST on Wednesday, June 12, 2024, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.3%, which is also a deceleration from April’s 3.4% Y-o-Y CPI reading.
Adding fuel to the rate-cut debate, the headline and core CPIs came in below economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents May’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the monthly and Y-o-Y CPIs (marked in red) were weaker than expected.
Furthermore, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its Monetary Policy Statement today at 2 p.m. ET. The group is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at its 5.25% to 5.5% range. However, Chairman Jerome Powell holds his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, and he should discuss the Committee’s projections and shed light on the path of interest rates in the months ahead. With U.S. government and consumer credit card debt at or near record highs, monetary easing would certainly help reduce the strain on low-income households.
Global markets lauded the CPI slowdown, with American and European indices climbing. Similarly, Treasury bonds and precious metals rallied as rate-cut expectations increased, while the U.S. dollar suffered as market participants adopted a more dovish outlook.
May’s headline inflation deceleration was driven by lower gasoline prices (-3.6%), utilities (-0.8%), new vehicles (-0.5%), and transportation services (-0.5%). Core inflation (which excludes the impacts of food and energy), rose 0.2% in May, the weakest monthly reading in 2024. The indexes for airline fares, new vehicles, communication, recreation, and apparel led the declines.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Food Prices
The food index increased by 0.1% in May after remaining flat in April. Uncooked poultry and beef roasts declined by 2.6% and 3.1%, respectively, while margarine fell by 2.7% and carbonated drinks sunk by 2.0%. Two of the six major grocery store food indexes showcased deflation, two were unchanged, and the other two increased.
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.2%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and egg (+0.2%)
- Dairy and related products (-0.5%)
- Fruits and vegetables (+0.0%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (-0.3%)
- Other food at home (+0.0%)
In addition, the food away from home index jumped 0.4% in May, outperforming the 0.3% increases from the previous two months. As a result, restaurants continue to demonstrate resilient pricing power.
Energy Prices
The energy index dropped 2.0% in May, a noticeable decline from April’s 1.1% rise. Gasoline and natural gas prices also fell by 3.6% and 0.8%, while the fuel oil index was down 0.4%. The index for electricity was flat in May.
Core CPI May 2024
The May core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month, the lowest monthly print in 2024. On a Y-o-Y basis, the metric rose +3.4%. Below is an itemized breakdown of the main price fluctuations seen in the core CPI reading:
- Shelter index: (+0.4%) [April: +0.4%]
- Rent index: (+0.4%) [April: +0.4%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.4%) [April: +0.4%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (-0.1%) [April: +1.8%]
- Medical care services: (+0.3%) [April: +0.4%]
- Physician services: (+0.0%) [April: +0.1%]
- Hospital services: (+0.5%) [April: +0.6%]
- Airline fares: (-3.6%) [April: -0.8%]
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI Data for May 2024
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for May 2024 increased (+3.3%) Y-o-Y, rising to an index level of 314.069. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Gold Bugs Rejoice
With the CPI slowdown supporting lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold has been one of the best-performing assets in 2024. Likewise, silver has really shined in recent weeks. Since precious metals futures contracts are priced in USD, a weaker greenback makes it more affordable for foreign investors to purchase the yellow metal. As such, lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and increased rate-cut enthusiasm create a profitable environment for gold enthusiasts.
However, if other commodities exhibit similar strength, bullish bets on assets like oil, gasoline, food, lumber, etc. could increase inflation in the months ahead. Moreover, lower interest rates increase American’s disposable income, which could boost consumption during the summer months when economic activity is typically strong.
Thus, 2024 winners like gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are betting that the Fed will find it difficult to tame inflation without causing a recession that sparks the next round of quantitating easing. In contrast, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite have soared on hopes that inflation will fade and a soft landing will materialize. Only time will tell which team claims victory.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Remember, seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
by Alex Demolitor | May 17, 2024 | Monthly CPI Updates
The March 2024 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation rose by 0.4% for the month, matching the price acceleration seen in February (+0.4%). These data were released at 8:30 am EST on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.5%, which is an acceleration from February’s 3.2% Y-o-Y CPI reading.
According to CNBC, economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.4% Y-o-Y increase, meaning the March results exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Given the sticky price pressures and the U.S.’s economic resilience, the data emboldened Fed officials to preach patience as it relates to potential rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate sits at 5.25% to 5.5%, which has pushed mortgage and credit card interest rates to multi-year highs. The development has also occurred alongside record U.S. government and consumer credit card debt. However, the U.S. economy remains supported by near-record-low unemployment and above-trend GDP growth.
Global markets had a mixed response to the CPI print, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 index ending the day in positive territory, while U.S. markets sold off.
March’s headline inflation outperformance was driven by higher gasoline prices (+1.7%), transportation services (+1.5%), electricity (+0.9%), and apparel (+0.7%). Core inflation (which excludes the impacts of food and energy), rose 0.4% in March, matching the upticks from January and February. The primary contributors were shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel, and personal care.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Food Prices
The food index rose 0.1% in March, surpassing February’s reading. Conversely, the food at home index remained flat for the second consecutive month. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes declined in March, with the cereals andbakery products index showcasing its largest one-month seasonally-adjusted decrease since the BLS began tallying the data in 1989:
- Cereals and bakery products (-0.9%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and egg (+0.9%)
- Dairy and related products (-0.1%)
- Fruits and vegetables (+0.1%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (0.3%)
In addition, food away from home rose by 0.3% in March, which annualizes to 3.67%. As a result, restaurants demonstrated resilient pricing power during the month.
Energy Prices
Turning to the energy complex, the index rose +1.1% in March, a material deceleration from the 2.3% rise in February. This month’s uptick was largely driven by higher gasoline and electricity prices, partially offset by a drop in fuel oil prices.
Core March 2024 CPI
The March core CPI rose by 0.4% month-over-month, mirroring the increases from January and February. On a Y-o-Y basis, the metric rose +3.8%. Below is an itemized breakdown of the main price fluctuations seen in the core CPI reading:
- Shelter index: (+0.4%) [February: +0.4%]
- Rent index: (+0.4%) [February +0.5%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.4%) [February: +0.4%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (+2.6%) [February: +0.9%]
- Medical care services: (+0.6%) [February: -0.1%]
- Physician services: (+0.1%) [February: -0.2%]
- Hospital services: (+1.0%) [February: -0.6%]
- Airline fares: (-0.4%) [February: +3.6%]
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI Data for March 2024
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for March 2024 increased (+3.5%) Y-o-Y, rising to an index level of 312.332. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Gold Keeps Shining Despite Higher Interest Rates
Even with Treasury yields, a strong U.S. dollar, and real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates marching higher, gold has maintained its reputation as an inflation hedge. Moreover, with geopolitical tensions increasing its appeal, the yellow metal has more than rate-cut enthusiasm supporting its ascent.
Although forecasts of the first cut moved from March to September, Wall Street analysts still expect the Fed to ease monetary conditions to support the housing market and indebted consumers.
Consumer confidence has taken a noticeable hit recently, as The Conference Board and University of Michigan’s metrics highlight an environment where Americans worry about the cost of living and housing affordability. However, with lower interest rates supporting consumers’ wallets at the expense of higher inflation, the Fed has a tough challenge on its hands.
As the drama unfolds, market participants have pushed assets like gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum to cycle highs, further emphasizing uncertainty over the Fed’s ability to control inflation.
Furthermore, with stocks near record highs and investors worried about the safety of the U.S. dollar, cash seems less appealing than it once was, even with short-term bonds offering yields near 5%.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Remember, seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
by Alex Demolitor | May 17, 2024 | Monthly CPI Updates
The April 2024 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation rose by 0.3% for the month, a notch below March’s increase (+0.4%). These data were released at 8:30 am EST on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.4%, which is also a slowdown from March’s 3.5% Y-o-Y CPI reading.
CNBC noted that April’s monthly increase came in below economists’ consensus estimate of 0.4%, while the Y-o-Y figure was in line with expectations. The slowdown should be welcome news for the Fed, as the FOMC’s projection of 100 basis points of rate cuts has been derailed by the stubborn pricing pressures. However, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cautious about encouraging another acceleration, it will be interesting to see how his tone evolves in the weeks ahead.
The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate remains at 5.25% to 5.5%, and the ascent has been a burden on the housing market and Americans strapped with credit card debt. With record U.S. government and consumer credit card debt still present, monetary easing would certainly help reduce the strain on low-income households.
As expected, global markets responded positively to the CPI slowdown, with American and European indices climbing, while the NASDAQ Composite hit a new all-time high. Similarly, Treasury bonds rallied as rate-cut expectations increased. In contrast, the U.S. dollar suffered as market participants adopted a more dovish view.
March’s headline inflation deceleration was driven by lower utility prices (-2.9%), used cars and trucks (-1.4%), and food at home (-0.2%). Core inflation (which excludes the impacts of food and energy), rose 0.3% in April, a drop from the 0.4% seen in January, February, and March. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles helped lead the declines.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Food Prices
The food index was flat in April after jumping by 0.1% in March. Headlining the pullback, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell in April, led by a 7.3% decline for eggs. Fruits and vegetables and nonalcoholic beverages also showcased deflationary trends:
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.6%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and egg (-0.7%)
- Dairy and related products (+0.1%)
- Fruits and vegetables (-0.8%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (-0.2%)
In addition, food away from home rose by 0.3% in April, which matches March and annualizes to 3.67%. As a result, restaurants are still passing through higher wage and input costs.
Energy Prices
Mirroring the March reading, the energy index rose +1.1% in April, with gasoline up 2.8% and fuel oil up 0.9%. Conversely, the index for natural gas fell 2.9% and electricity prices eased by 0.1%.
Core April 2024 CPI
The April core CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, which was below January, February, and March’s 0.4% reading. On a Y-o-Y basis, the metric rose +3.6%. Below is an itemized breakdown of the main price fluctuations seen in the core CPI reading:
- Shelter index: (+0.4%) [March: +0.4%]
- Rent index: (+0.4%) [March: +0.4%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.4%) [March: +0.4%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (+1.8%) [March: +2.6%]
- Medical care services: (+0.4%) [March: +0.6%]
- Physician services: (+0.1%) [March: +0.1%]
- Hospital services: (+0.6%) [March: +1.0%]
- Airline fares: (-0.8%) [March: -0.4%%]
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI Data for April 2024
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for April 2024 increased (+3.4%) Y-o-Y, rising to an index level of 313.548. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Gold Continues to Climb
With the CPI slowdown supporting lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold has basked in the glory. Since gold futures contracts are priced in USD, a weaker greenback makes it more affordable for foreign investors to purchase the yellow metal. As such, lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and increased rate-cut enthusiasm have created the perfect environment for gold enthusiasts.
However, with other commodities joining the party, expectations of a dovish Fed could increase inflation in the months ahead, if assets like oil, gasoline, and food commodity prices rise. Moreover, lower interest rates increase American’s disposable income, which could boost consumption during the summer months when economic activity is typically strong.
Thus, 2024 winners like gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are betting that the Fed will find it difficult to tame inflation without causing a recession that sparks the next round of quantitating easing.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Remember, seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
