The October 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation rose by 0.4% this month, down from a 0.6% rise in September. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on November 10, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). As a reminder, the BLS did not publish the CPI data for October 2025 due to the government shutdown. Therefore, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) figures were not reported today.
This month’s results surpassed economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents October’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, both CPIs were slightly hotter than anticipated.
Yet, as the US-Iran conflict continues, and a resilient economy keeps the pressure on the Fed, Chairman Kevin Warsh said after the latest Monetary Policy Meeting on October 28 that inflation remains problematic:
“In the five months or so that I’ve been around, we’ve put in place what I describe as new monetary medicine. Well, what’s been in that package of medicine? The first thing we did when we showed up, with my colleagues, is we doubled down on the 2 percent inflation target. We said, we own it, we’re taking responsibility for it, and if you think that we’re tolerating some inflation target somewhere in the 2’s, let us disabuse you of it.”
Thus, with this hawkish rhetoric occurring before the recent robust nonfarm payrolls print, more rate hikes are likely in the months ahead.
Food Prices
The food index jumped by 0.5% in October following a flat reading in September. Four of the major grocery indices increased MoM, while one was flat and the other declined.
- Cereals and bakery products (+0.0%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+0.5%)
- Dairy and related products (+0.6%)
- Fruits and vegetables (+0.6%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (-0.3%)
- Other food at home (+0.7%)
In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.5%, as restaurant inflation matched grocery inflation in October.
Energy Prices
The energy index rose by 0.7% in October, a noticeable slowdown from the 5.2% MoM reading in September. Gasoline prices jumped by 1%, while electricity rose by 0.9%, and natural gas fell by 0.8%.
Core CPI
The October core CPI rose by 0.3% MoM, which matched the results from September and August. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:
- Shelter index: (+0.3%) [September: +0.4%]
- Rent index: (+0.2%) [September: +0.2%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.3%) [September: +0.3%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (+0.7%) [September: +0.1%]
- Medical care services: (+0.3%) [September: +0.3%]
- Physician services: (+0.4%) [September: +0.0%]
- Hospital services: (+0.8%) [September: +0.7%]
- Airline fares: (+0.4%) [September: +1.2%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for October 2026 increased by 0.2% MoM to an index level of 337.511. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
More Hawkish Data
While the Fed decided to hold its policy rate steady in October, investors largely anticipate another rate hike in December. The expectation is driven by the massive outperformance of US nonfarm payrolls on November 6, as the economy added 165,000 net new jobs versus 65,000 expected.
In addition, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings (wage inflation) also surpassed expectations, which further bolsters the case for tighter monetary policy.
Similarly, while S&P Global’s US Services PMI decelerated, the November 4 report noted that output inflation increased compared to last month. An excerpt read:
“Operating expenses rose sharply again due to elevated fuel prices, whilst service providers raised their own output prices to an even quicker degree.”
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, added:
“Average prices charged for services meanwhile rose at one of the fastest rates seen over the past four years. Combined with a jump in goods prices tracked by the October manufacturing PMI survey, the overall signal is for inflation to rise further above the Fed’s target in the coming months.”
So, while a pullback in AI investment could help calm these issues, the recent data makes it difficult for the Fed to avoid another rate increase.
Finally, while both metrics had been in downtrends for years, quits and hires both increased in the latest JOLTS report. And since they often rise when labor demand is strong, the recent short-term strength is worth monitoring for a potential trend reversal.
As for gold, Goldman Sachs was the latest major investment bank to reduce its price target. The strategists cited higher interest rates and a more hawkish Fed as headwinds for the yellow metal.
However, if the US and Iran find common ground and oil prices retreat, the recent inflationary impulse could recede and eliminate the need for more rate hikes. Under that scenario, gold could prosper again and regain the enthusiasm that helped power its recent bull market.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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Alex Demolitor is a financial writer and cross-asset analyst who completed the CFA Program, passing all three levels of the CFA exams. He has a Bachelors degree from King's College in Ontario and specializes in the fundamental analysis of stocks, bonds, commodities, and FX, with a focus on U.S. and Canadian economic indicators like CPI and inflation. His market analysis has appeared on major publications such as FXEmpire, Investing.com, and AdvisorPedia.
